Cale Makar’s $20 Million Cap Hit Could Shrink as NHL Ceiling Rises

Cale Makar’s record-setting $20 million cap hit looks easier to absorb if the NHL’s ceiling climbs as sharply as one report suggests. For Colorado, the key change would be the shrinking share of its available spending room tied to its star defenseman.

The Avalanche’s deal with Makar drew concern over the strain it could place on the team’s roster. At $20 million per season, the number stands out under the current cap outlook. But Frank Seravalli reported Thursday that the ceiling could reach $150 million in 2029-30, a projection that would change how that figure looks across the league.

A smaller share of Colorado’s cap

Makar’s cap hit is set to represent 17.9% of Colorado’s cap allocation next season, according to the source article. If the ceiling reaches $150 million, that share would fall to 13.6%. The contract would still command a substantial portion of the Avalanche’s room, but the projected increase would give the club more total spending capacity around it.

That distinction matters when assessing a star contract. A fixed cap hit can become less restrictive as the league ceiling grows, even though the player’s annual figure stays the same. The larger pool could give Colorado more flexibility to fill out its roster, while also lifting the price teams may have to pay for elite talent.

There’s a league-wide effect, too. A $20 million salary that seems exceptional today may sit among more contracts at that level if the ceiling rises toward the reported figure. The number itself doesn’t change; its place in the market does. For the Avalanche, that could make Makar’s deal look less like an outlier and more like an early marker for the next tier of star salaries.

MacKinnon’s next deal is a longer-term question

The projected cap rise also brings Nathan MacKinnon’s next contract into view, though his current deal runs through 2031. He can sign an extension in the summer of 2030, when the ceiling is believed to be approaching $150 million. That timing creates a possible link between the league’s cap growth and Colorado’s next major commitment.

A $20 million annual figure for MacKinnon would be a major decision. He’ll be 35 when his current contract expires, so the Avalanche would have to weigh his value against the uncertainty that comes with paying a player deep into his career. The source article points to Sidney Crosby as a comparison for the possibility of an elite player remaining effective into his late 30s, while stressing that MacKinnon’s future production is not guaranteed.

Even so, a high cap ceiling could make a top-tier salary easier to fit. If MacKinnon remains a leading forward and Colorado chooses to keep him, the share of the team’s cap represented by a $20 million deal would depend on how large that cap pool becomes. The article’s view is that such a contract, which would seem startling in 2026, could look much more manageable three years later.

Cap growth changes the scale, not the commitment

The important caveat is that the $150 million ceiling remains a possibility reported by Seravalli, not a settled figure. Colorado’s planning will depend on what the league ultimately sets and how its roster needs develop. A larger ceiling would create room, but it wouldn’t remove the trade-offs that come with directing a large share of that room to a few players.

For now, Makar’s contract offers a useful measure of how quickly cap growth could alter the conversation. His $20 million hit would still be significant, yet a ceiling at the reported level would reduce its relative weight. If MacKinnon reaches extension talks in 2030, the same rising cap could also change what counts as an extraordinary salary. Colorado’s challenge will be matching those commitments with enough depth to keep the roster competitive.