Golden Knights and Oilers Separate From the Pacific Pack in Early Projections

(Photo Credit: ESPN)

Vegas and Edmonton have opened a gap at the top of the Pacific Division, and early projections suggest the chase for third place could be far more competitive than the race for the first two spots. Money Puck gives the Golden Knights a 93.9% chance of qualifying for the postseason and the Oilers an 88.7% chance. No other Pacific team reaches 43% in the same forecast.

That early split puts the division’s familiar imbalance back in view. The Pacific is guaranteed three postseason berths under the divisional format, but a conference-wide one-through-eight arrangement would currently send only Vegas and Edmonton through, based on the projections cited here. The distinction matters: a third Pacific team can still reach the postseason by finishing high enough within the division, even if it trails the leading clubs by a wide margin.

Two teams lead the odds

Here are Money Puck’s early postseason odds for the division:

• Vegas Golden Knights – 93.9%
• Edmonton Oilers – 88.7%
• Los Angeles Kings – 42.9%
• Seattle Kraken – 34.5%
• Anaheim Ducks – 31.8%
• San Jose Sharks – 25.7%
• Calgary Flames – 5.7%
• Vancouver Canucks – 2.7%

The gap below Edmonton is striking, but these figures are an early forecast, not a final judgment on any club. The season is only a few weeks old, and projections can move as results accumulate. For the Kings, Kraken, Ducks and Sharks, the numbers point to a crowded race for the remaining divisional place. Calgary and Vancouver have a much steeper climb in the model.

The projected points show the same separation in another way. Money Puck has Vegas at 105.6 points and Edmonton at 102.3. Los Angeles, the next team on the list, is projected for 89.2. That leaves a 13.1-point gap between the Oilers and Kings, with four teams clustered within 3.8 points of one another from Los Angeles through San Jose.

A crowded middle, a weak bottom

Those projections put the third place in play. The Kings are forecast for 89.2 points, Seattle for 87.5, Anaheim for 86.7 and San Jose for 85.4. A spread of fewer than four points across those four clubs leaves plenty of room for the standings to change. A strong run, a stumble, or simply a different pace of results could reshape that group over the coming months.

The combined points percentage for the six Pacific teams below Vegas and Edmonton is .401. That pace translates to a 70-point season, a poor return for a group that includes four teams projected to finish between 85.4 and 89.2 points. The contrast between the current combined percentage and those full-season estimates is a reminder that early standings snapshots can look rough while projections still leave room for improvement.

Last season, Vancouver finished with a .354 points percentage. The current division-wide pace raises the possibility that a Pacific club could end this season below that mark, though there is no certainty in such a comparison this early. The projections place Calgary at 75.1 points and Vancouver at 72.1, both well behind the four-team cluster chasing Los Angeles.

• Vegas Golden Knights – 105.6 points
• Edmonton Oilers – 102.3 points
• Los Angeles Kings – 89.2 points
• Seattle Kraken – 87.5 points
• Anaheim Ducks – 86.7 points
• San Jose Sharks – 85.4 points
• Calgary Flames – 75.1 points
• Vancouver Canucks – 72.1 points

The longer record adds context

There is a clear basis for the recurring description of the Pacific as a two-team division. Over the past four seasons, Vegas and Edmonton have combined for 15 postseason series victories. The other six Pacific clubs have combined for three. That record gives the early separation more weight than a few weeks of results alone, even as it says little about how the current group will ultimately finish.

There is another side to that record. A Pacific team has represented the Western Conference in each of the past four Stanley Cup Finals. Vegas or Edmonton has reached the conference final in seven straight seasons, while San Jose was the last other Pacific club to get there, in 2019. The division has consistently produced a leading contender, but the recent success has been concentrated in two teams.

San Jose is one team that could complicate that pattern. Money Puck projects the Sharks for 85.4 points, fourth among the four clubs grouped between 85 and 90, and the source describes them as being on pace for that total. It’s an encouraging place to start for an upstart team, but the forecast still leaves San Jose behind the two leaders and within a close fight for third.

(Photo Credit: @GoldenKnights on X/Twitter)

Vegas’ schedule brings the division into focus late

Vegas’ next divisional matchup is scheduled for November 11, when Vancouver visits Las Vegas. The Canucks are projected at 72.1 points, compared with 105.6 for the Golden Knights, so the model points to a substantial gap between the teams. A single matchup can still turn on the night’s play, but the projected standings make clear why Vancouver faces a difficult assignment.

The heavier stretch of divisional games comes later. In Vegas’ final 15 games, 10 are against Pacific opponents, concentrating a meaningful part of the Golden Knights’ schedule against the same teams they’re competing with for position. By then, the standings may have separated the leaders from the rest—or tightened enough to make those meetings decisive.

The source expects the top two places to be largely settled by that late stretch. That’s a projection, and the four teams chasing third have enough proximity in the points estimates to keep the final divisional berth open. The clearest early read is that Vegas and Edmonton hold the advantage, while the middle of the Pacific has room for a prolonged race. The next useful test will be whether Anaheim or San Jose can turn its early promise into a sustained push past the rest of that group.