Golden Knights’ Scoring Chances Hold Up as Slow Starts Return

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Vegas’ recent scoring dip has revived a familiar concern: the Golden Knights are again spending too much time chasing games. They haven’t held a lead for even a second in their past three outings, and coach Ryan Craig sees that pattern as part of the explanation for why the offense has cooled. The underlying chances, however, suggest the problem may be finishing more than creating.

That distinction matters. When a team scores first, it can make its opponent take more risks and create openings to build on the lead. Craig said Vegas had benefited from that dynamic earlier in the season. Against Columbus, he thought the Knights generated opportunities in the final 15 minutes after their penalty kills, but couldn’t turn those looks into the goal that might have put the game away.

“The other thing we haven’t done is led. Sometimes when you get those goals which we did a little bit in those first 10 games, you get excited and you start shooting the puck and you put some anxiety or pressure on the other team and you can capitalize on that. I thought the last 15 minutes after the penalty kills (vs CBJ) we generated some chances to put the game away and it didn’t go for us.” — Ryan Craig

The season’s broader numbers provide some reassurance. Vegas spent more than 1,900 minutes trailing during last year’s regular season, the most in the NHL aside from Vancouver. The Knights spent about 1,300 minutes ahead. This season, they have spent more than 60 additional minutes leading than trailing, a meaningful improvement in game state even as the current skid has brought the old issue back into view.

There’s still a clear reason for concern about how games are beginning. Vegas has conceded the first goal in eight of its 13 games, or 62 percent. It scored first in only five of its opening 10, yet it entered the third period behind in just two of those games. Early deficits against Nashville and Vancouver were erased, while the Knights opened strongly against Chicago, Calgary, Seattle and Pittsburgh. The current three-game stretch has been different: no lead, and no early cushion to help shape the way the games unfold.

The chances are there; the finishes aren’t

Craig said the team’s video review and analytics both show that Vegas is still generating opportunities. The recent results support that assessment. The Knights produced 1.37 expected goals in the third period against Columbus, a level that often points to a reasonable chance of scoring at least once. They also finished ahead of St. Louis in expected goals, 3.30 to 2.68, and held a wider edge against Tampa Bay, 4.47 to 2.80.

“We are generating some of those chances. Analytics show that and when we watch it back on the tape it shows that. We haven’t finished obviously as well.” — Craig

Expected goals don’t guarantee a goal, and Vegas’ opponents have had strong performances in net. Andrei Vasilevskiy delivered a Vezina-caliber showing against the Knights. Joel Hofer has opened the season in sharp form and played well against Vegas. Cam Talbot, despite a career 3.15 goals-against average against the Golden Knights, turned in one of his best performances in 22 starts against them.

That combination offers a plausible explanation for the gap between Vegas’ chances and its recent scoring. The Knights can keep reaching dangerous areas, but a hot goaltender or a missed finish leaves the scoreboard unchanged. The figures do not establish that the slump will end on its own; they do show why the team may view execution and opposing goaltending as bigger factors than a complete breakdown in chance creation.

Familiar lines as Marner returns

Craig is showing confidence in the group by keeping the forward combinations he has used for much of the season. There have been a few changes lower in the lineup, but Mitch Marner’s return puts him back on the wing with William Karlsson, restoring a familiar look ahead of the game against Ottawa.

That continuity gives the returning forward a known combination while Vegas looks to reconnect its offensive play. A quick start at T-Mobile Arena would help the Knights avoid another night of chasing, but the line choices also suggest Craig expects the current group to turn its chances into goals. There is no reported change in approach based on the recent results; the immediate test is whether the familiar trio and the rest of the forward group can finish the looks they’re already creating.

Vegas remains in the top 10 in goals per game, shots per game and power-play percentage. Its shooting percentage has fallen sharply since consecutive six-goal games against Calgary and Pittsburgh. That drop helps explain why the recent stretch feels so stark, but the team’s season-long position across those categories indicates that the offense has not lost all of its production.

The clearest target for the Senators game is a better opening and a return to finishing. Scoring first could let Vegas put pressure on Ottawa and play from a more comfortable position. If the Knights fall behind again, their recent chance totals still give them a route back into the game—but the three-game run has made clear that generating opportunities only matters when one of them reaches the net.

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