Jason Robertson’s Next Stars Deal Could Top $15 Million as Dallas Gains Cap Room

Dallas has more room to negotiate, but Robertson’s price remains unsettled

The Dallas Stars appear intent on keeping Jason Robertson, and their cap outlook for next season gives them more room to pursue a long-term deal. The harder question is what that deal will cost. Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period said on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio that the final number could depend heavily on Robertson’s performance this season, with figures discussed ranging from $15 million to $19 million annually.

Those figures are possibilities raised in the discussion, not a reported agreement or confirmed asking price. Pagnotta said Robertson had been looking for $15 million before Leo Carlsson’s situation entered the conversation. He also framed the eventual value as dependent on term. That leaves a wide negotiating range, and a season of play could shift where the sides land.

Cap flexibility changes the conversation

Dallas couldn’t find a way to fit a new deal into its prior cap situation, according to Gord Stellick and Pagnotta’s discussion. Stellick described the Stars as a strong team operating close to the ceiling, which made it difficult to resolve the money last season. The club’s challenge was to keep Robertson while managing its available space and filling out the roster.

Pagnotta estimated that Dallas could have about $35 million in cap room next season. He pointed to Tyler Seguin’s $9.85 million cap hit coming off the books as one major factor. If Seguin remains with the team, Pagnotta expects it would be at a lower cap figure, though he said he doesn’t expect Seguin to take a $1 million deal. He compared the possibility of a reduced extension to the way the Stars handled Jamie Benn’s contract, without suggesting the terms would be the same.

The projection comes with a caveat: Dallas still has other players to sign to complete its roster. The $35 million estimate is therefore a starting point for planning, not money that can all be assigned to Robertson. The cap is also expected to rise, adding flexibility across the league. Still, Pagnotta’s read is that the Stars will have less reason to cite cap constraints in talks for next season. The negotiation may turn more directly on what Dallas believes Robertson is worth and how much of its available room it wants to commit.

A one-year deal set up another round of talks

The source’s account says a one-year contract at $12 million was intended to get Robertson through a difficult cap year and leave space to work toward a longer extension after Jan. 1. Stellick said general manager Jim Nill could begin talking with Robertson in December, while noting that he could not sign him to an extension until Jan. 1.

That timing gives the Stars and Robertson a chance to address the long-term question before the next season begins. Stellick said Nill has made it a priority to avoid repeating last summer’s uncertainty, when the sides did not settle on a deal. Pagnotta agreed that resolving the situation is a major item for the club as it looks ahead.

The reported desire appears to run both ways: Pagnotta said Robertson wants to stay, and that Dallas wants to keep him. That mutual interest matters, but it doesn’t settle the central issue. Robertson’s side will be weighing market value, while the Stars must decide what annual cap charge and term fit their plans. A tax-free state could also affect how a player weighs salary against the cap hit, Pagnotta said, with the cap figure potentially lower than in other markets.

Term and performance could move the final number

Any long-term agreement would have a shorter maximum term available than the eight-year option discussed previously. The source says a seven-year maximum would apply if Dallas and Robertson choose that route. A shorter maximum term can affect the annual number the sides negotiate, so the term and cap hit are linked parts of the same decision.

Pagnotta raised several possible annual figures, including $15 million, $16 million, $17 million, $18 million and $19 million, while stressing that Robertson’s performance this season would help determine the outcome. He did not say that any of those figures had been offered or accepted. The spread shows why an extension remains a significant financial question even with more room on the Stars’ books.

For Dallas, the practical task is to balance a major commitment to a key player with the remaining roster work. For Robertson, the season offers another chance to strengthen his position before the next extension window opens. The Stars have a clearer path to negotiating than they did last year, but the price is still to be determined—and his play may decide whether the sides find common ground in the range Pagnotta outlined.